Conservatives should be careful what they wish for with Carney (2024)

Once again, the Conservative Party of Canada is trying to bait Mark Carney into entering the political fray. After passing what they called a “Common Sense Conservative motion” in the House of Commons finance committee calling on Carney to testify, CPC finance critic Jasraj Singh Hallan doubled down on the partisan silliness. “Carbon tax Carney needs to come to Finance Committee and explain to Canadians if he'll continue down the same disastrous policy path as Trudeau and if he supports quadrupling the carbon tax scam,” he said on social media.

There’s still no evidence that Justin Trudeau has any intention of leaving before the next election, or that anyone within the Liberal caucus has the gumption to try pushing him out. But a fascinating new set of numbers from Relay Strategies founder Kyla Ronellenfitsch suggests the Conservatives might want to be careful what they wish for here.

As she noted in her analysis of the data, “The proposition of a new Liberal party leader isn’t an immediate game changer, but it does breathe new life into the race. Given the possibility of someone other than Justin Trudeau leading the party, the Liberal vote pool increases by 14 points.” The three most attractive traits in any potential new leader are “more economic-focused, “not close to Justin Trudeau,” and “spent their professional life outside of politics.” The least attractive traits, by far? “Close friend or ally of Justin Trudeau” and “minister in Trudeau’s cabinet.”

That seems like a pretty clear prescription for more Carney. When given more information about his background, he comes out ahead of the field (one that includes familiar names like Chrystia Freeland, Melanie Joly and Dominic LeBlanc) when asked who’s most exciting. Perhaps most importantly, he’s the most popular candidate among voters who are willing to reconsider the Liberals if Trudeau leaves.

It’s tempting to compare Carney to Michael Ignatieff, who nearly led the Liberal Party of Canada to complete ruin in 2011, and any number of pundits and political watchers have been doing that for months now. There are a number of reasons I’ve never bought that comparison, not least because Carney’s loyalty to Canada has never been in question. Just ask Stephen Harper, who sang his praises time and again while he was the Governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013.

You could also ask former NDP leader Tom Mulcair, who wrote about Carney in a recent column of his own. “I knew the aloof Ignatieff and I know Carney, and they have nothing in common. I was able to invite Carney twice to the Université de Montréal where I’ve been teaching since I left politics. One of the events was a major keynote, the other a lecture to graduate students on issues of resource development and sustainability. He was engaging and generous and he shone at both.” One important detail worth noting here: the Université de Montréal is a French-language school, which means Carney’s French — or appeal to Quebeckers — won’t be an issue.

And where Ignatieff’s weaknesses played into Harper’s strengths, the reverse is true with Carney and Poilievre. Carney would give the Liberals the sort of economic heft they desperately need right now, and he would be able to dismantle Poilievre’s flimsy sloganeering around everything from inflation to climate policy. He would also activate some of Poilievre’s worst instincts, from his contempt for expertise to his bullying style of debate, drawing out his true self for more people to see.

Right now, it seems, there’s one person standing in the way of that. As pundit Scott Reid said on the latest episode of Curse of Politics, “Liberals will fail to get Canadians to take a hard look at Poilievre as long as they have to peer around Trudeau.” It’s still not clear if Carney actually wants to subject himself to the sort of ritual humiliation and juvenile gamesmanship that now defines federal politics. That’s especially true given that the best-case scenario for the Liberals in the next election might now be holding Poilievre to a minority government. But if Carney wants the fight, it’s there for the taking — and Conservatives may well regret the day they tried to take it to him.